New Clues Strongly Suggest This Is the "Confidential Stock" Warren Buffett Has Been Buying
Is Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG Mr. Buffett's 'Confidential stock'
New Clues Strongly Suggest This Is the "Confidential Stock" Warren Buffett Has Been Buying
Fundamental Analysis Methodology - CANSLIM
The CAN SLIM Investing System | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD
PSFE good momentum post earnings
Paysafe Reports Second Quarter 2023 Results; Raises Full Year Outlook
One minute financial update: Year to Date
Economy
The economy has been resilient so far this year, but the higher interest rates have increased cost or borrowing, diminished risk appetite and emerged as a root cause of banking sector stress.
Additional headwinds include waning business confidence, shrinking global trade, growing consumer debt and reduced government spending following the U.S. debt-ceiling resolution.
We expect that inflation can continue falling and our inflation estimates are below the consensus but achieving the 2% inflation target could take considerable time.
We anticipate they developed-world economies will fall into a mild to middling recession within the next few quarters.
A mild recession could help cool inflation, prompt central banks to cut interest rates and set the stage for the next durable economic expansion.
Fixed Income
It appears that the relentless increase in bond yields from last year has eased and investors have been conditioned to a higher interest-rate environment.
As inflation soared, investors embedded a higher inflation premium into bonds and our models suggest the reverse will be true as inflation moderates.
Over the longer term, we still expect real interest rates to rise slightly above zero as savers will ultimately need to be compensated for saving instead of spending.
We look for the 10-year Treasury- bond yield to fall to 3.25% over the next year, which would generate close to. 7% total return with minimal valuation risk.
Fixed Income
The stock-market rebound since late 2022 was propelled by easing investor concerns regarding inflation and about the sustainability of economic growth.
The rally was initially broad-based across regions but returns in recent months have been concentrated in a narrow set of U.S. mega cap technology stocks.
We would prefer to see expanding breadth alongside a rising stock-market index to confirm a healthy, durable, bull market.
The bigger threat to the stock market is now the sustainability of corporate profits which have been struggling and will be vulnerable if the economy falls into recession.
2023 YTD overview
Although Q2 was flat in terms of performance, it comes on the heels of two quarters of extraordinary returns. There have been plenty of ups and downs along the way, but overall the market is on an upswing. And the returns so far in Q3 have been strong — for those who stayed invested, at least. A lot of people were scared out by the volatility.
Market swings are a natural part of investing. They're driven by uncertainty, changes in interest rates, fear, and greed. But if you look at history, over long periods of time the average stock market return is 4-5% more than the inflation rate.
The last five years have highlighted that dynamic at warp speed. We've had some huge swings thanks to changes in economic outlook, policy, and investors' aversion to risk. But when you look at the entire period — even with the scary environments we saw at the start of the pandemic and in the first part of 2022 — returns for world stocks have been a little bit above average, at about 8%. If you shorten the time frame and look only at the past year, world stocks have rallied by about 20%.
We've seen economic conditions improve since last month, as inflation declined significantly and unemployment stayed low. If inflation continues to decline without a spike in unemployment or a drop in economic growth, more positive returns may be on the way. But if inflation is stickier than expected, or the economy slows significantly, there may be more turbulence.
Either way, my outlook is the same: over a longer horizon (five years or more), median returns are at 4-5% over inflation — pretty close to long-term averages.
What’s your take for the YTD so far? How is your portfolio performing?
Rivian Automotive: An Electrifying Stock with a Bright Future
Have you seen the impressive rise of Rivian Automotive's stock? It's been on a winning streak for the past seven days, and today it's soaring even higher. The company's latest production and delivery update has sparked some serious momentum. They increased deliveries by a whopping 60% from Q1 to Q2, and their R1T pickup truck is outselling competitors in the EV market. Analysts are taking notice too, with Wedbush increasing their price target to $30 per share. It's a risky investment, but Rivian's progress suggests a bright future. What are your thoughts on this electrifying stock?